The advanced computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 14 on a blistering 14-3 run. For the season, it is now 28-12 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 76-46. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 129-61 on the season, ranking in the top two on NFLPickWatch.com.
Now the model has dialed in on Jaguars vs. Titans. We can tell you it’s leaning over, and it’s also generated a strong point-spread pick that’s hitting well over 50 percent of the time. You can only see that one over at SportsLine.
The model has factored in that the Titans have made a practice out of coming from behind to pull out late victories all season. Against the Jets, Tennessee trailed by 16 before ending the game on a 13-0 run for a 26-22 victory. In Week 2, the Titans edged the division-leading Texans with a late field goal, and two weeks later, went for the win instead of a tie against the Eagles with an overtime touchdown. Tennessee nearly beat the Chargers in London, but its two-point conversion with 31 seconds remaining failed.
Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota is healthy and playing his best football of the season. On Sunday, Mariota threw for 282 yards and rushed for another 43 — in critical junctures of the game — to will the Titans to victory. Tennessee will also rely on the one-two backfield punch of Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis to grind out first downs in what is expected to be a low-scoring affair.
But just because the Titans are coming off a season-saving win doesn’t mean they’ll cover the Thursday Night Football spread.
The model also knows that one big advantage for the Jaguars will be the pressure they routinely get on the quarterback courtesy of defensive ends Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. Both have seven sacks this season, but their ability to impact the game goes beyond disrupting the passing game.
Campbell has registered 15 quarterback hits this season and Ngakoue has an incredible 25. The Titans have given up 42 sacks this season, so if Campbell and Ngakoue can live in the Titans’ backfield, it could be a long night for Mariota.
Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette is expected to return to action after serving a one-game suspension for throwing haymakers against the Bills. In Fournette’s five games played this season, he’s found the end zone five times and has scored multiple touchdowns twice. He has yet to eclipse 100 yards rushing in a game, but has added over 40 yards receiving twice. Fournette will also be well rested since he last played on Nov. 25. He’ll face defensive linemen going on just four days’ rest.